How Can Cotton Textile Enterprises Predict The Market In 2019? Decline Or Shift?

In December 2018, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 48.67, an increase of 1.40 compared with November.

According to China Cotton Association Research and understanding, in December, the market demand is not strong, the price of gauze products is short of support, all the way down, the rhythm of production and marketing is slowing down, the pressure of products going to inventory is larger, the pressure of cotton spinning enterprises to withdraw funds is large, and the industry is in a state of depression.

The situation of large and medium sized and differentiated products enterprises is still acceptable, which is not directly affected by Sino US trade frictions, and the order of small and micro production enterprises is decreasing.

Close to the year, inventory has become the main task of the enterprise.

According to the questionnaire survey conducted by the China Cotton Association Association, most enterprises expressed concern about the forecast of the industry market in 2019. About 37% of the enterprises expected that the domestic market in 2019 would decline compared with 2018, and 43% of the enterprises expected the export market to decline compared with 2018. About the impact of the Sino US trade dispute on the operation of enterprises in 2019, about 35% of the enterprises thought it was further deteriorated than that in 2018, 30% of the enterprises thought it would be reduced, 24% of the enterprises thought it was flat, 11% of the enterprises said it was difficult to judge; 43% of the enterprises in the investment pfer indicated that the macro environment and capital situation would affect the investment and pfer.

In December, the purchasing price index of raw materials was 49.92, down 0.02 compared with November.

At the beginning of December, Sino US trade frictions reached a phased consensus. The risk appetite of futures market picked up. Domestic and foreign cotton futures were in the right direction and rebounded rapidly. The spot price of cotton rose slightly. However, in the background of the weak market demand and the uncertain trend of Sino US trade friction, cotton spot prices began to decline after a short recovery.

The price of chemical fiber staple continued to decline, but the trend slowed down.

In December, the CotlookA index averaged 86 cents / pound, a decrease of 0.78 cents / pound, the average spot price of domestic 3128B grade cotton was 15026 yuan / ton, a decrease of 46 yuan / ton, the average price of mainstream viscose fiber was 13777 yuan / ton, the decrease was 393 yuan / ton, the average price of 1.4D direct spinning polyester and polyester was 8909 yuan / ton, and the ratio was 219 yuan / ton.

Recently, with the news of trade negotiations between China and the United States, confidence in the market has recovered slightly and cotton prices have rebounded. However, the supply pressure of the cotton market remains to be released, plus the end of the holiday, so the price increase will not be too great.

In December, the stock index of raw materials was 48.72, an increase of 2.66 compared with November.

Tracking enterprise data shows that in December, the raw material inventory increased by 2.49%.

Among them, the raw cotton inventory increased by 2.32%, the import cotton inventory decreased by 0.70%, and the non cotton fiber inventory increased by 3%.

The main reasons are as follows: first, the Chinese side has been invited to the United States for Sino US trade consultation in recent years. Under this good macro atmosphere, market confidence has increased; two, December, the downward trend of raw material prices has slowed down, the textile enterprises have concentrated replenishment at the stage and increased the stock of raw materials. Three, in December, domestic cotton prices fell, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to shrink.

In mid January, some textile enterprises began to take off gradually, raw material purchase gradually slowed down, and signs of stockpiling were not obvious.

In December, the production index was 49.49, an increase of 2.16 compared with November.

Investigation and understanding showed that the output of low pure cotton yarn in production decreased, and the production of combed yarn, medium high count yarn and colored spun yarn was relatively stable.

Weaving production is slightly better than that of the spinning mill. In December, holidays were more frequent, with merchants selling lower prices, and downstream orders were acceptable.

The demand for blended and elastic varieties in the downstream market has increased, and the number of orders has increased.

Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn production increased by 4.51% in December, and cloth production increased by 5.30%.

Among them, the yield of cotton blended yarn increased by 11.96%, and cotton blended fabric increased by 7.38%.

At present, workers are on vacation, and the opening rate of enterprises has dropped.

In December, the product sales index was 50.24, an increase of 1.44 compared with November.

In December, with the help of holidays such as "12," Christmas, new year's day and so on, the demand for the downstream market has been rebounded briefly. In addition, the enterprises have generally reduced sales as soon as possible, which has accelerated the downward trend of the price of gauze products.

In terms of price, the average price of 32 pure cotton combed yarns is 23245 yuan / ton, a decrease of 375 yuan / ton, and the average price of pure cotton grey fabric (32*32 130*70 2/1 47 "twill") is 5.62 yuan / meter, and the ring ratio is 0.05 yuan / meter.

Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn sales increased by 11.65% in December, and sales increased by 3.38%.

Recently, the prices of pure cotton yarn and cloth continued to decline, trading slowed down, and the prices of purified yarn and cloth were kept stable.

In December, the product inventory index was 47.5, an increase of 2.28 compared with November.

In December, the inventory level of the spinning mill was reduced. The investigation and investigation showed that the enterprises were affected by the occupation of funds. The stock of the products was less. The stock of the products was basically produced in accordance with the single production. The stock of the conventional products was kept for about 15 days.

The inventory of weaving mills increased compared with November, which was mainly affected by the increase of pure cotton cloth inventory, while the inventory of cotton blended fabric remained low.

Tracking enterprise data showed that yarn inventory fell by 6.47% in December, while cloth inventory increased by 5.29%, of which 8.95% of pure cotton cloth ring ratio and 5.05% of cotton blended fabric ratio decreased.

In January, inventory is still the top priority of textile enterprises.

In December, the business index was 46.89, an increase of 0.22 compared with November.

In December, the enterprises intensified their sales, and the sales of gauze increased.

However, due to the continuous downward price of products and the poor market situation, in order to reduce inventories, enterprises have reduced sales, reduced profit levels or even suffered losses.

Coupled with rising labor costs, the cost of technological pformation has been increasing, and enterprises are facing many difficulties. In particular, small and micro enterprises producing conventional products have been in a long-term deficit, and some of them have been shut down.

Although the recent Sino US trade dispute has been improving, the enterprises are still worried about the outcome before the final result is released. In the short term, the industry will still suffer from various pressures.

Description: China's cotton textile industry boom index is collected from more than 200 cotton spinning enterprises in the whole country. Through the weighted calculation of several main indicators, when the index is higher than 50, it indicates that the cotton textile industry is in a good condition, and below 50 indicates that the economic level is not good enough.