Yang Delong: Maybe There Will Be A Trend Of Rise Years Ago.

Now China's M2 has reached 150 trillion, which is more than two times that of GDP, and generally it is about twice as much as the international market. That is to say, China's currency is excessive, which leads to the flow of funds in different markets.

Before and after the Spring Festival this year, when the stock market fell to more than 2600 points, it should be said that the market is pessimistic. Everyone is desperate for the market outlook. It is feared that the A stock market will probably run straight to 2000 points because of the sharp fall in the US stock market during the Spring Festival.

But in fact, it was this time of despair that the market rebounded.

Now, the market has gradually rebounded toward the slow cow.

In the past, we saw that the seesaw effect of the property market and stock market was not strong, but in the past three years, this effect is very obvious, that is, the stock market is strong, the property market is falling, the property market is strong, and the stock market is falling.

The main reason is that the economy is in pition, and there are not many investment opportunities in the real economy, which can not absorb so much liquidity. These funds are flowing in different markets.

We can see that since the beginning of this year, the property market has soared and doubled, in addition to the stock market's rise. The commodity futures market is also soaring, and the price of gold is also rising.

This year, basically, except for the stock market, everything else has gone up.

Now the property market regulation can be said to have achieved results. Many cities have seen a drop in volume and price in the property market, especially in Shenzhen, where turnover has dropped by seven percent and eighty.

In this case, we should first measure and then fall.

With this expectation, funds will flow out of the property market and constantly seek new opportunities.

The blue chips in A shares are a valuation depression, so this is the most important factor affecting the market.

In fact, as long as the fundamentals of our economy do not decline sharply and maintain a steady growth of about 6.5% per cent, the impact on the stock market basically has been reflected in the price of the stock market.

In fact, the market should look at expectations, rather than that we now sell the house to speculate in stocks, and it takes one or two months to sell houses.

The outflow of capital from the property market takes time. As long as we expect that in the next one or two months, the property market will continue to flow out to find exports. Just as some people I know have followed my advice, they began to sell their houses and gradually copy the blue chips from September. So the capital flows into the stock market in batches.

Now the positions of A share investors are relatively low, many large private placement or even less than 20% of the positions, and many insurance companies' positions are only 10%.

For insurance companies, it can be up to thirty percent of assets.

And now the warehouse is only 10%, so it seems that the insurance company has a larger opening space.

Therefore, as long as we expect a turning point in the property market, the stock market will gradually increase its internal capital and the external inflow will make the market rebound.

If property market funds flow into the stock market immediately, it may be that the market is not the current situation but rather fast.

So we say that the reason why the market is a slow cow now is that funds come in waves.

From the perspective of the Fed's interest rate increase, I think the rate hike can be said to be within everyone's expectations, so the RMB can also be devalued in an orderly way.

For management, I think the central bank is now letting the renminbi depreciate in a market-oriented way, because we can see that in fact, the euro and the pound are all depreciating, and the RMB is actually depreciating with these currencies.

However, if the US dollar goes too strong, the central bank will prevent the RMB from devaluing once and for a time, and the exchange rate will be unstable.

Because we have just joined the SDR, the central bank can not let the RMB depreciate sharply, so I think the exchange rate may still continue this trend of small depreciation and slow depreciation.

The opportunity for blue chips is relatively definite now. In August, I wrote a report calling for a positive response to the age of blue chip mergers and acquisitions.

We noticed that from the last year's stock market crash to now, we often see some high-quality blue chips, especially blue chips with dispersed ownership.

In fact, it reflects the recognition of the value of blue chips by industrial capital.

After last year's stock market crash, investors also found it better to buy some premium blue chips rather than go after some stocks and storytelling stocks.

Because ultimately, stock prices are determined by performance rather than by stories, and storytelling stocks often can not be cashed.

Last year, many investors also lost their stocks because of the stock market. The stock market crash is a risk education for investors.

But from the point of view of industrial capital, the economy is in the pition period. In the process of pformation, people may be optimistic about some emerging industries, but the emerging industries are still in the primary stage of development, and it is difficult to say which company can become the leading industry.

For example, e-commerce, ten years ago, there were thousands of thousands and thousands of businesses, but the last one was the big electric business, such as Ali and Jingdong, and the rest were almost dead.

There is a great risk in investing in this new industry.

For industrial capital, it is better to buy the leading stocks of traditional industries than to invest in new industries with strong uncertainties.

Because the leading industry of traditional industry has undergone decades of market tests, it has already belonged to the industry that has won or lost.

So buying these leading stocks can achieve dividends in those years, and now share prices are also low after the stock market crash, which should be a good time for layout.

As for the layout direction I mentioned, such as the belt and road, liquor, brokerage, military industry and so on, these directions are now gradually being fulfilled.

For example, recently, the belt road has benefited from the PPP project exceeding expectations, and the Chinese prefix plate represented by rail pit has risen sharply, and many stocks even appeared five Lian Yang, six Lian Yang, and the increase was over two percent to thirty.

It should be said that the plate has not yet gone up. Compared with the high point, it should also play a four to half off discount and more attention.

This week the market is clear, that is liquor, medicine,

Outstanding performance, this is actually speculation Hong Kong and Shenzhen Tong is expected to open soon.

Hong Kong and Shenzhen are benefiting from the scarcity of the HKEx, for example, liquor, medicine and military industry.

After its opening, it may become the target of foreign investment.

Secondly, the securities companies were benefited. Although their performance in the first half of this year is not good, mainly because of the excellent performance in the first half of last year, the performance of the securities companies in the first half of this year is generally down by fifty percent. However, when we switch the time point to the second half of the year, the performance of the securities companies has improved.

In the second half of last year, the stock market began to decline, brokerage business began to decline sharply, and the scale of the two financial pactions was reduced by half. So the performance of the securities dealers in the second half of last year was relatively low. In this case, this year's securities companies cast off the extreme situation in 2015, in fact, its performance is the best in history, even more than 07 years of profit.

In this case, once the market breaks through the high rebound point of the previous period, the rebound of the brokerage stocks is relatively established.

I think investment should be put in a relatively long term.

Because in the manning market, the market volatility is relatively small, that is, the price of the stock will be retraced, and a lot of repurchases will be normal, but we also need to see whether the trend is upward.

For example, since the end of last year, I recommended the liquor plate to the present, many liquor stocks are already far outperforming the market, although it has experienced a fuse, but in the first half of this year, many of the prices still hit a new high, such as Moutai.

If you make a band in the middle, you may find it difficult to be satisfied.

But if you have been holding until the end of last year, you actually make money, or even earn four percent or fifty.

However, you may lose money in other stocks, which means that investors need to grasp a relatively long trend instead of watching the one or two day fluctuations.

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For example, before the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, we may have a wave of liquor and medicine related plates.

And after the speculation, wait until the Shenzhen and Hong Kong through the opening, favorable appearance, there may be part of the profit taking, and then a certain stock price callback.

However, because the center of gravity of the whole market is constantly moving up, the allocation ratio of these white horse stocks is improving. Then the market adjustment will soon have another capital to pick up, and create a new rebound. So in this case, I think the band is very difficult to do.

Now, the strategy should be buying and holding.

For investors holding other stock types, I suggest that we should actively change positions.

In fact, from the dispatch of the national team, it is also changing the stock position.

We can see from some semi annual reports that they have lighten up some small cap stocks and theme stocks that are quite large, while some blue chips are being concentrated.

This shows that large funds actually focus on changing positions.

Therefore, for ordinary investors, we should follow the footsteps of industrial capital and follow the government's policy guidance.

A series of policies this year are aimed at combating speculation.

If the speculation theme stocks may pull a limit, they will be regulated. On the contrary, like some big blue chips, no one will ask even if there is a continuous big line.

This shows that the policy is very obvious in guiding investors to invest in value and buy stocks.

If you are in the middle and long lines,

Instead of being short, it can now be full.

For example, the announcement of the Qianhai open source fund in May 21st last year, when the bubble of the gem was too large, we carried out a comprehensive reduction of the stock and the collective short positions had been empty for nearly nine months.

Because we do not think we should copy the bottom when we think the trend is going down, nor do we want to rebound.

After the Spring Festival this year, we think that the market has already bottomed out, so we will increase the warehouse position to 90% at once, until now, there has been no reduction.

This shows that what we are doing is a big trend.

Now that we judge the market is a slow bull market, the bottom will continue to rise, then the valuation of these blue chips will rise, so now it can add more than 80% of the positions to 90%, so that we do not need to do the middle band, but through the "buy in and hold" to share the gains of the bull market. With a proper noun, it is actually taking the yield curve, taking the rising curve of the big market, we can do the middle band, because the yield is always negative in the middle band.

Actually, the cycle of a slow cow should be longer than that of a fast bull.

Fast bull, we often finish in a year, or even finish in less than a year, and the bull market usually lasts for more than two years, that is to say, we can buy and hold this year to next year.

At the same time, there may be a callback in the middle of the market, but for the callback, I think it is a chance to increase.

Although the market may not rise so fast in the index, there will be many opportunities for individual stocks, especially for blue chips.

As for the value center, the market starts from the Spring Festival. It takes two steps to retreat, and the bottom of each adjustment is rising.

For example, the first adjustment to 2700 stops, second times to 2830, third to 2930, fourth to 3000 has stopped, this callback may not even 3000.

That is to say, the bottom of the market callback is rising. If you want to copy the bottom, you can follow the pattern of two steps and one step back. That is to say, if the wave rises by two hundred points, then the callback may be one hundred. In the middle position, we can consider the opportunity to seize a position.