Analysis On Import And Export Of Footwear In Jiangsu In The First Quarter

Since the beginning of this year, the export growth of Jiangsu's industrial products has dropped to a certain extent. The growth rate of exports in the first month has been suppressed first and then increased.

The growth rate of import and export of mechanical and electrical products is lower than the average level of the whole province, and the export of high-tech products such as electronic information continues to decline, and the average export price of some industrial products has dropped more.

Meanwhile, the province's general trade export growth continued to lead the processing trade, and the export structure of processing trade was further optimized.

Overall, according to customs statistics, the first quarter of the province's foreign trade imports and exports amounted to 90 billion 570 million US dollars, an increase of 18.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 8.5 percentage points over the same period last year, 6.5 percentage points lower than the national average level, of which 52 billion 660 million US dollars in exports, an increase of 19.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 12.9 percentage points over the same period last year, and a 1.8 percentage point lower than the national average.

Imports of US $37 billion 910 million, an increase of 16% over the same period last year, has increased by 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year.

The main characteristics of the industrial products in the province are as follows: 1. The export growth rate of industrial products in a single month is first suppressed and then increased.

In the first quarter, the total export of industrial products in the province was 51 billion 925 million US dollars, an increase of 19.4% over the same period last year, an increase of 13.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and an import of 33 billion 371 million US dollars, an increase of 12.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 7.4 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

The monthly growth rate of industrial products exports increased from 18.1% in January to 27.7% in March, and the growth rate of imports increased from 15.9% in January to 4.2% in March.

2, exports of traditional bulk industrial products continue to maintain a good momentum, effectively supporting the steady growth of the province's foreign trade exports.

The top 5 products of the province's export volume are large industrial products, namely: automatic data processing equipment and parts, clothing and accessories, liquid crystal devices and accessories, textile yarn, fabrics and products, TV, radio and wireless equipment accessories, including second garments and accessories export 3 billion 580 million dollars, an increase of 18.4%.

The fourth textile yarns, fabrics and products exported 2 billion 540 million US dollars, an increase of 28.7%, an increase of 22.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

The export of fifth pieces of TV, radio and wireless equipment to 2 billion 90 million dollars, an increase of 34.2%, an increase of 34.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

3, the growth rate of import and export of mechanical and electrical products is lower than the average level of the whole province.

In the first quarter, the export of mechanical and electrical products in the province was 36 billion 475 million US dollars, an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year, an increase of 17 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, which is 3.2 percentage points lower than the total export volume of the whole Province, which is 6.7 percentage points lower than the national average export growth of mechanical and electrical products, and imports 24 billion 470 million US dollars, an increase of 10.1%, lower than that of the province's import and export growth by 5.8 percentage points, which is lower than the average growth rate of the import of mechanical and electrical products by 6.3 percentage points.

The most important factor for the decline of the export of mechanical and electrical products is the negative growth of machinery and equipment exports, which accounted for nearly 40% of the export volume of electromechanical products. The export volume in the first 3 months decreased by 1.4%.

4, general trade export growth significantly leads to processing trade.

From 2006, the general trade export growth in our province exceeded the processing trade for the first time. In the first half of March this year, the province's general trade exports continued to maintain strong growth momentum, exports 19 billion 290 million US dollars, an increase of 35.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 15.6 percentage points over the whole province's exports, which accounted for 15.6 of the total export volume of the province from 34.6% at the end of last year, and 32 billion 720 million US dollars in processing trade, an increase of 11.4% over the same period last year, 8.2 percentage points lower than the average export growth of the whole province, and the proportion of the total export volume of the province decreased from 64.1% at the end of last year to 62.1%.

The sustained and rapid growth of general trade shows that our province's production enterprises, especially domestic enterprises, are improving their ability to open up the international market, and are also the performance of Jiangsu's export competitiveness.

Although the growth rate of processing trade has slowed down, the internal structure of processing trade has changed significantly. The total growth rate of import and export processing and assembly trade has been continuously negative, and the growth of import and export of import processing trade has increased significantly.

In the 1-3 month, the import and export trade of processing trade reached US $11 billion 920 million, down 29.2% from the same period last year, and the import and export trade of processing trade reached US $41 billion 520 million, an increase of 32.7% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 22.8 percentage points over the same period last year.

Two, main problems 1. The export of high-tech products has declined significantly.

In the 1 quarter, the export of high-tech products in the province was 20 billion 820 million US dollars, an increase of only 3.3%, an increase of 32 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, representing a 39.5 percentage point share of the total export volume of the province. In January, the export of high-tech products in the province was 6 billion 570 million US dollars, down 3.2% from the same period last year, showing a negative growth rate for the first time since 1995.

2, the export situation to the United States and Japan is grim.

Our province's slowdown in exports to the United States and Japan began in 2007. From the beginning of 2007, Jiangsu's exports to the United States and Japan slowed down significantly. The monthly export growth to the United States dropped from 51.9% at the beginning of the year to 1.8% at the end of the year. The monthly increase in exports to Japan dropped from 41.3% at the beginning of the year to 4% at the end of the year.

This year, the province's exports to the US have been negative growth. In January, exports to the United States increased by 3%, negative growth in 1-2, and negative growth in the 1 quarter in 1.2%.

In the 1 quarter, our province's exports to Japan increased by only 2.1%, of which the growth rate in January and February was 8 8% and 1.9% respectively.

3, the export of "big households" in Suzhou and the province's export growth in 2007, "the number one" Suqian double slumped.

This year, the most obvious export reduction in the whole province is the export of "big family" Suzhou and Suqian's export growth in 2007.

In the 1-3 months of last year, the export growth of Suzhou and Suqian reached 34.8% and 98.1% respectively.

In the first half of March this year, Suzhou's export growth dropped to 11.9%, Suqian to 21.4%, and the two cities' export growth ranked the first and third in the province respectively.

In the 1 quarter, although the export growth of 11 cities in the province (except Suzhou and Lianyungang) catches up with or exceeds the average level of the province (19.6%) and the national average (21.4%), the slowdown in the export growth of the 1 cities of Suzhou directly affects the export growth of the whole province.

In 2007, Suzhou's exports accounted for 58.35% of the province's total. In March of this year, Suzhou's exports accounted for 56.7% of the province's total exports.

4, the export price of some light industrial products has dropped more.

The export price of our country's traditional export advantage commodities increased sharply while the export prices increased.

In the 1 quarter, the export volume of color TV sets (including the whole loose parts) increased by 36.9%, the export average price fell by 7.5%, the number of motorcycle exports increased by 15.1%, the export average price increased by 0.8%, the number of bicycle exports increased by 43.2%, the export average price increased by only 0.6%, the number of cap exports increased by 27.7%, the export average price dropped by 6.8%, the export volume of silk fabrics increased by 31.5%, and the export average price dropped by 4.7%.

5, the export of foreign-funded enterprises is not optimistic.

In the 1 quarter, foreign invested enterprises exported 39 billion 350 million US dollars, an increase of 15.5%, an increase of only half of the same period last year, and the lowest increase in all kinds of enterprises.

Since 2006, the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises in total exports has been decreasing, accounting for 76.5% in 2006, 75.5% in 2007, and 74.7% in the 1 quarter of this year.

Three, cause analysis of the 1 quarter of this year led to the decline in exports of industrial products, there are some temporary factors, such as snow and ice disaster, Spring Festival holiday, seasonal reduction in enterprise orders, but more are the long-term factors, these factors will affect the import and export situation of our province in the coming months and even the whole year.

On the one hand, the imbalance of the world economy is aggravating, and the price of grain and oil continues to fluctuate at a high level. The impact of the "subprime crisis" in developed countries such as the United States continues to be released, which will increase the uncertainty of global economic development.

On the other hand, in 2008, China's policy of export tax rebate, import tariff, processing trade and exchange rate will continue to adjust the trend of adjustment in recent years. Meanwhile, domestic inflation expectations are forming, and the pressure of enterprise production costs will increase.

As a big province of import and export, the domestic and foreign macro environment changes have brought some pressure to our province's industrial exports.

1, the US economic uncertainty has increased.

From the perspective of external demand, the impact of the US subprime crisis has not yet dissipated, and has a greater impact on the global economy, especially in developed countries.

According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economic growth rate will drop from 4.9% last year to 4.1%.

Among them, the US economic growth rate will drop from 2.2% last year to 1.5%, and the European economic growth rate will drop from 2.6% last year to 1.6%, and Japan's economic growth rate will decline from 1.5% last year to 1.5%.

The subprime mortgage crisis caused the lending phenomenon of American financial institutions may affect consumer credit funds, the real estate wealth effect weakened and consumer confidence reduced. Over the years, the rapid growth of US citizen consumption on the two cornerstones of credit economy and wealth effect may be significantly reduced.

Because our province mainly exports consumer goods to the United States, the slowdown in US consumption will be unfavorable to the export of our province.

2, in 2007, the policy of controlling excessive export growth and adjusting the structure of foreign trade intensified in 2008.

Since 2007, the reduction of surplus is the focus of China's foreign trade work. The state has adopted a series of measures to alleviate the pressure of trade surplus, including adjusting the export tax rebate rate of some products and the tariff rate of import and export, adjusting the processing trade policy, cleaning up and regulating the outdated "reward and entry restriction" policy, and so on, to a certain extent, restraining the export of some high energy consumption, high emission and resource products.

The export tax rebates or levying and export tariffs of 695 "two high and one capital" products have been abolished successively. The entry threshold for processing trade enterprises has been increased, and some commodities have been included in the prohibited catalogue of processing trade. The inhibitory effect of these policy measures on industrial exports will gradually show up in 2008.

3, the continued appreciation of the renminbi and the continuous rise in domestic price levels have led to the "double" pressure on the bulk export products such as textiles, chemicals and machinery, which are low in international pricing power.

On the one hand, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar accelerated significantly. In 2007, the value of RMB rose to nearly 6.5% against the US dollar. Since this year, the appreciation rate of RMB has obviously accelerated, and by the end of 3, it has risen to 4.07%. In April 10th, it has broken 7, marking the arrival of the "6 era" of RMB. The appreciation 6% is equivalent to reducing profits by 3 percentage points. The most difficult ones are those with only 2-3% profit margins.

Although Renminbi denominated pricing is a good way to avoid the risk of RMB appreciation, only a few enterprises in our province can do it. Some enterprises export their products to the European market, and merchants still demand the US dollar instead of the euro.

On the other hand, the domestic price level has also risen considerably. In the first two months, the CPI index increased by 7.9% over the previous year. These two factors make the products of our province face "double" appreciation pressure abroad, and will have a great impact on the industries with low international pricing ability of textile, chemical, machinery, automobile and spare parts in our province.

4, the international competitiveness of labor-intensive commodities in our province has been further weakened.

Some developing countries such as Pakistan, India, Vietnam and Kampuchea have developed labor-intensive products such as textile and garment industry as key industries. These countries have adopted different policies of encouragement and support, and Pakistan and India have raised the export tax rebate of textile products one after another.

Compared with our province, these countries have considerable competitive advantages in terms of labor, raw materials, and some energy prices.

According to the "global comparison report on the labor cost of the world's major textile industry in 2007", labor costs in China's coastal areas have been increasing rapidly and approaching the threshold of US $1 per hour.

Official statistics of Vietnam, Kampuchea, Bangladesh and Indonesia show that the domestic labor costs of the textile industry are 0.29, 0.36, 0.22 and 0.36 US dollars per hour, respectively.

After the implementation of the new labor contract law this year, the production cost of enterprises has further increased, and the price competitive advantage of our province and some neighboring countries in labor-intensive industries has basically been lost.

5, the decline in the price of international IT products has a direct impact on the growth of Jiangsu's import and export volume.

The increase in import and export volume in Jiangsu in the first quarter was mainly due to the low growth rate of import and export in Suzhou.

From what we know now