Reinhardt: Cotton Is Difficult To Break Through Resistance 76.80 Cents - 77.50 Cents In The Near Future.

New York

- this week's 12 year December contract terminated a downward trend from 75 cents.

The price initially set a new low for the current trend, but prices managed to jump out of the support interval set up in July (about 70 cents).

12 cotton in December continued to be 80-100 points lower than the 13 year March contract.

During this period, the certification stock was reduced to less than 10000 bags.

Other forces will also determine the direction and trading pattern of the contract price differentials for the 12 December contract of January -13. There may be considerable fluctuations in the price differentials within a few weeks.

Between the beginning of September and the end of September, the IMF increased its holdings of 8000 short positions and levelled off 2000 long positions.

Business bulls increased by 8000, and commercial shorts decreased by 5000.

The basis of these figures is the dealer option and Futures Commission report issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

In view of market pactions this week, there will be no major changes in next week's report.

Spot trading is slow, and funds seem to be less active.

Technical side: short term technology -- the current trend from the low of 70.22 cents seems to be an opposite trend. However, as long as the closing price is no less than 71 cents, this trend may not yet be completely ended.

The rebound range may expand from 72.65 cents to 74 cents, and it may also extend to 75 cents.

The key resistance is between 76.80 cents and 77.50 cents, and it is impossible to break through in the near future.

The United States - this Congress has been very inaccurate, and compared with the other Congress in the past 50 years, they have hardly passed several bills.

So last weekend, the 112nd Congress also let the agricultural bill fail, which is hardly anything new.

In 2008, Congress passed a 5 year bill to finance all agricultural projects, from agricultural subsidies to protection programs to food vouchers.

This year, we need to update this agricultural law. The Senate passed its 10 year bill, which is close to US $1 billion.

The house of Representatives has not pieced together its own bill.

Therefore, they can only try to finish their work after the general election.

Technically speaking, the United States is now back to the agricultural law of 1949, which is a permanent agricultural law incorporated into the law, and all subsequent agricultural laws are provisional.

In 1949, the agriculture law created a very different America.

In fact, the agricultural law of 1949 is very impractical for today's situation. No one really expects Congress to make this Law continue.

For the time being, the national agricultural law will remain the same, because because of the fact that Congress will complete a bill in about six months before the start of next spring planting season, many farm subsidies and crop product plans do not really need to be extended, including cotton.

India - New Cotton begins to enter all main planting areas.

The water content is very high. The report shows that the daily arrival quantity is about 15000 bales.

Because of the slowdown in demand for domestic textile mills and the appreciation of the rupee against the US dollar, cotton prices are weak.

The Cotton Advisory Committee (CAB) announced the latest cotton production forecast in India in October 4, 2012, with output roughly 33 million 400 thousand packets (170 kilograms), down from 35 million 300 thousand packages of last year's 2012/13.

Gross domestic demand is now estimated at 27 million bales, compared to 25 million 270 thousand packages in 2011/12.

The final inventory is expected to be 3 million 450 thousand packages, compared with 2 million 850 thousand packages last year.

Turkey - Southeast Turkey is picking cotton in good weather conditions.

Cotton output this year is lower than last year.

It is now widely estimated that this year's output is at 600000-650000 tons, less than that of last year's output of about 900000.

The first batch of cotton was of medium quality, fiber 1.1 / 8 plus micron value 4.5 and higher, with good strength.

At the beginning of the year, cotton was picked by hand, but then it was mainly picked by machine.

About 60% of Turkey's cotton has been picked up by machines.

The news from Turkey's textile industry is very positive.

Yarn requirements are good, especially ring spinning and compact yarn.

O/E spinning mill has shifted from cotton to synthetic fiber in the past two years. Now it is considering turning back to cotton again because of price.

It is easy for cotton mills to purchase cotton because there are domestic sources of cotton.

Moreover, Greece's cotton is picking now, and the textile mills continue to buy only cotton for the near future.

Considering the good business, we can foresee that this year's cotton consumption may increase to 1 million 350 thousand tons.

Greece, because of the higher yield per unit area, the output could reach about 280000 tons.

The recent heavy rain has a negative effect on the quality of cotton picked in the early stage. The cotton picked in the early stage is mainly HVI-41.

But the weather is warm and sunny, and the cotton picked in the next few days is expected to be HVI-31.

The technical specification is more convincing, the fiber is 1.1 / 8, the micron value ranges from 4 to 4.7, and the strength is 28 GPT (HVI) and above.

Spain - the recent rainfall has delayed cotton picking time for about a week.

The weather forecast for the next 14 days will say no rain, no rain.

Quality has a negative effect.

We still predict that the output will be about 57000 tons, mainly from medium to strict medium quality.