Period Cotton Continues To Shake Cotton Near Strong, Far Weak Pattern Maintenance

I. macro information

Spain's budget is in line with EU requirements, and US employment figures are better than expected. The situation in Iran is rising oil prices.

Looking forward to China's new stimulus policy

1.

Spain unveiled details of its budget, which will focus on spending cuts rather than tax increases.

The EU framework and budgetary control proposals remain the same.

2.

US employment figures are better than expected.

The number of unemployed Jin people was 59 thousand, better than the market expected 375 thousand.

3.

Moodie lowered South Africa's rating from A3 to Baa1

4.

Tension rises in Iran

5.

The central bank yesterday's reverse repurchase operation of 180 billion yuan, the market stimulus policy is full of expectations.

Two, industry information

1) spot: China's cotton price index rose 5 points, to 18671.

The sale price of lint everywhere is stable.

The price of the three grade lint is 18500 to 18900 yuan / ton, and the four grade lint price is between 17800 yuan and 18300 yuan per ton. The average price of throwing and storing cotton is more popular near 18600 yuan / ton.

2)

The market is generally fatigued, low and heavy, especially the weakness of human cotton yarn market. The price is falling steadily, the market is empty, the cotton mill is miserable, and the whole cotton yarn is still lifeless.

3) cotton mate: Recently, the price of cotton has been lowered. The quality of the new cotton seeds in Shandong Dezhou Xiajin area is generally 1.16-1.17 yuan / Jin, the ex factory price of the three grade cotton oil is 7850-7900 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday, it dropped 50 yuan / ton, and the cottage meal price of 40% protein was 2600-2620 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday.

4) dumping and storage: the 27 day throw and storage ratio was 64.29%, the average price continued to rise, the total turnover was 421116.33 tons, and the Corps actually sold 1620.838 tons.

The paction ratio of storage and storage is over 70%, and Xinjiang has concluded a total turnover of 226920 tons.

The progress of local storage and purchase: with the fall of cottonseed prices, Dezhou cotton enterprises clearly feel that the acquisition cost is too high, reaching 19200 yuan / ton, plus processing cost of 800 yuan / ton and interest rate of 200 yuan / ton per month, the total cost has reached 20200 yuan / ton, which is four yuan higher than the 400 cotton / storage price.

The acquisition cost is obviously high, cotton enterprises want to lower the purchase price, but cotton farmers do not buy it.

Three, anticipation and recommendations:

Cotton prices are basically weak, but the policy price has played a leading role recently. The purchase and storage of reserves will be parallel. Cotton prices will remain stable for a short period of time.

The band pays more attention to the 19200 support, paying close attention to whether the closing price will be above 19400, and the existing positions should not be too heavy. The market will fall sharply and choose 05 contracts to lock.

In accordance with the principle of bargain buying, cotton prices have room for improvement in recent months.

Although cotton market is weak, it is at present stage.

Leading cotton prices.