The Reserve Rate Is Up Or Up Again, Experts Say, Raising Interest Rates Can Not Be Replaced.
Yesterday, the central bank was in the open. market Issue 1 billion yuan 3 month central bank ticket. Because capital The industry is confident that after raising interest rates, the central bank will raise the reserve rate again.
It is also predicted that new additions will be made in January.
RMB
The loan could reach 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan, which will aggravate the pressure on the central bank to control credit growth.
The central bank's plan for regulating the total amount of social financing is expected to come out.
With the central bank raising interest rates on the 9 day, the issuance rate of the 1 billion yuan three month central issue issued yesterday rose sharply to 2.6242%, higher than the March deposit rate of 2.60%, but still far below the two market interest rate 3.5048%, which does not rule out the possibility of further rising in the future.
It is expected that the yield of the other central banks will also rise with this increase in interest rates.
Raising interest rates can not replace the reserve ratio.
Before the holiday, the central bank will restart the reverse repurchase operation at the end of January, and at least put 350 billion yuan into the bank's liquidity after the Spring Festival.
In addition, more than 100 billion yuan of fiscal deposits expired.
The market is expected to take into account that the central bank may still raise interest rates and the pace of operation in the open market. In the short term, it is difficult for the central bank's interest rate to be reversed in the one or two tier market, and the liquidity recovery of the banking system has yet to wait for the central bank to increase the reserve ratio and other tools (including the differential reserve ratio).
Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, expects that there will be two reserve requirements raised in the first quarter, one of them or in February.
"Interest rate adjustment can not constitute an alternative to the reserve ratio adjustment."
Lu commissar told reporters.
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New loans increased to 1 trillion and 200 billion in January.
The central bank may announce the new Renminbi loan data in January next week.
According to economists, the size of the new RMB loans by Chinese financial institutions in January may reach 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan, which has been substantially enlarged compared with the previous month, which will aggravate the pressure on the central bank to control credit growth.
It is not surprising that loans increased substantially at the beginning of the year, because financial institutions usually lend heavily after the loan quota is reset.
The amount of new Renminbi loans increased to 1 trillion and 390 billion yuan in January last year.
Economists say the surge in loans will exacerbate inflationary pressures.
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